The oil shock from the Iran War could tip the American economy from slowdown into something more problematic

IN RECENT weeks, a growing number of expert observers have been raising the possibility that due to high oil prices caused by the Iran war, the US economy could find itself mired in stagflation – stagnant growth amid rising inflation.

In a series of posts on X two weeks ago, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics Mark Zandi said that the company’s machine learning-based economic model had put the probability of a US recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product growth – at 49 per cent, “even before disconcerting events in the Middle East”.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion-features/growing-odds-us-stagflation-trap